A Look at the "End"
Yesterday, I noted the new documentary titled No End In Sight. Today, the Washington Post has an article about what the possible “end” of U.S. military forces in Iraq would look like for Iraq. The piece details recent U.S. military wargaming on a pullout of Iraq; the results won’t look pretty. It could be catastrophic, with regional player Iran getting involved as the country collapses into a massive and violent civil war. If that coincided with a complete U.S. pullout, I would happen to think that Turkey would get involved too. The more common result is a defacto split of the country into three separate regions, Sunnis in west, Kurds in the north, and Shiites in the South. Large scale violence would accompany the collapse of the national Iraq state as the groups separate towards their respective regions. Either way, the U.S. withdraw will cause violence which leads to this question towards the end of the article:
“Say the Shiites drive the Sunnis into Anbar,” one expert said of Anderson’s war-game scenario. “Well, what does that really mean? How many tens of thousands of people are going to get killed before all the surviving Sunnis are in Anbar?” He questioned whether that result would prove acceptable to a pro-withdrawal U.S. public.
If the violence continues after a U.S. pullout, what happens? Does the public reconsider intervening in Iraq to try to stop the violence. Does the public eye move on to the next even in the news?
Every possible answer in Iraq just produces more questions.